Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
bank_of_canada

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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after a contraction of 2 ½ percent in 2020, the bank now projects global gdp to grow by just over 6 ¾ percent in 2021, about 4 percent in 2022, and almost 3 ½ percent in 2023.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
157
overall, the bank forecasts gdp growth of 0.8% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025, roughly unchanged from its october projection.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
269
given this judgment about potential output, the canadian economy can be expected to return to full capacity, and inflation sustainably to target, around mid-2017.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
336
despite continued low oil prices, the canadian dollar has appreciated since july, largely reflecting a broad-based depreciation of the us dollar.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
586
tighter monetary policies aimed at controlling inflation are weighing on economic activity around the world.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
908
this sequence will be bolstered by the considerable easing in financial conditions that has occurred and by improving u.s. demand.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
14
the bank projects gdp growth will slow from 3¼% this year to just under 1% next year and 2% in 2024.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
582
inflation remains around the 2 percent target, with some recent upward pressure from higher food and automobile prices.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
293
private domestic demand in the united states has picked up and will be reinforced by recently announced monetary and fiscal stimulus.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,011
34
while the economy appears to be operating with less slack than previously assumed, given the more modest growth profile, it is only anticipated to return to full capacity by the third quarter of 2013.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
706
the bank continues to provide extraordinary forward guidance on the path for the overnight rate, reinforced and supplemented by the bank’s quantitative easing (qe) program.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
326
financial conditions have eased, largely reversing the tightening that occurred last autumn.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
886
housing activity is expected to slow from record levels.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
682
the global economy has unfolded broadly as the bank projected in its july mpr.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
931
meanwhile, housing activity is picking up in most markets.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
181
recent developments are in line with the bank’s expectation of a soft landing in the housing market and stabilizing debt-to-income ratios for households.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,014
80
the bank expects real gdp growth of 1.9 per cent in 2015, 2.5 per cent in 2016, and 2.0 per cent in 2017.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
497
household spending will be dampened further by slow growth in oil-producing provinces.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
63
overall, the global economy is strengthening largely as expected and prices of some commodities, including oil, have risen.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
79
this is reinforced by the bank’s business surveys, which find businesses are still increasing their prices more frequently than normal.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
406
total cpi inflation is projected to be temporarily below the inflation-control range during 2015, moving back up to target the following year.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
786
despite recent volatility, the bank expects the underlying trend of export growth to continue, leading to a pick-up in business investment.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
311
in canada, economic growth likely picked up to about 1½% through the first half of this year.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
986
as a consequence, commodity prices are expected to remain at elevated levels, following recent declines.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
821
despite this expected pickup, with the weak growth in the second half of 2012, annual average growth is now projected to be 1.5 per cent in 2013.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,013
33
although canadian growth rebounded in the third quarter with the unwinding of temporary factors, underlying economic momentum has slowed and is expected to remain modest through the middle of next year.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
296
the bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for canadians.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
62
the bank now expects the economy’s return to above-potential growth to be delayed until the second quarter of 2016.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
211
at the same time, total purchases will be gradually reduced to at least $4 billion a week.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,020
339
the bank of canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 5%, with the bank rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
542
food inflation is easing from very high rates.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
56
a pick-up to 3 1/2 per cent is expected in the third quarter as oil production resumes and rebuilding begins in fort mcmurray.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
396
household spending is now projected to grow at a steady pace through 2013.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
768
businesses continue to report widespread labour shortages and, with the full reopening of the economy, strong demand has led to a sharp rise in the price of services.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
628
in this context, governing council will remain cautious with respect to future policy adjustments, guided by incoming data.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
764
the bank’s estimate of growth in canada in 2015 has been marked down considerably from its april projection.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
545
in canada, real gdp growth is expected to slow to 2.2 per cent in 2018 and 1.6 per cent in 2019, following an estimated 3.0 per cent in 2017.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
340
a broad-based decline in the us exchange rate combined with stronger commodity prices have led to a further appreciation of the canadian dollar.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
742
to the extent that the economic expansion continues and the current excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
30
the bank is continuing its qe program to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
657
consumption has continued to grow but is declining on a per person basis.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
241
quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of monetary policy and normalizing the bank’s balance sheet.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
324
the bank now forecasts global gdp growth of 2½% in 2024 and 2¾% in 2025, following 2023’s 3% pace.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
725
the canadian dollar has been relatively stable and oil prices are around the levels assumed in april’s monetary policy report (mpr).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
449
however, the bank must also take into consideration the risk of exacerbating already-elevated household imbalances.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
407
the global economic recovery from the covid-19 pandemic is progressing.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
53
consumption has been subdued, with softer demand for housing, durable goods and many services.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
200
the governing council is resolute in its commitment to price stability and will continue to take action as required to achieve the 2% inflation target.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
97
risks to the outlook for inflation are now roughly balanced and risks to financial stability appear to be evolving as expected.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
150
governing council will continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for cpi inflation.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
194
china’s economy is showing renewed momentum, while growth in a number of other emerging market economies has slowed as their financial conditions have tightened.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
747
while the bank’s business outlook survey suggests acute labour shortages are starting to ease, wage growth is still elevated relative to productivity growth.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
310
real gdp is expected to grow by 1.3 per cent in 2016, 2.2 per cent in 2017, and 2.1 per cent in 2018.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
7
while employment growth has remained firm, indicators still point to significant slack in the labour market.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
805
after a sharp drop in the first half of 2020, global economic activity is picking up.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
390
in particular, we will be evaluating whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour are consistent with achieving the 2% inflation target.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
245
stronger u.s. demand, as well as the recent depreciation of the canadian dollar, should help to boost exports and, in turn, business confidence and investment.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,014
18
the transitory impact of higher gasoline prices and recent minimum wage increases will likely cause inflation in 2018 to be modestly higher than the bank expected in its january monetary policy report (mpr), returning to the 2 per cent target for the rest of the projection horizon.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
341
reflecting this, the bank’s july monetary policy report (mpr) presents a central scenario for global and canadian growth rather than the usual economic projections.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
286
the council is still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation, particularly the persistence in underlying inflation.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
461
as those effects wear off, cpi inflation may edge up again before settling around the 2% target next year.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
656
commodity prices remain elevated owing to improved global economic prospects, supply disruptions and geopolitical risks.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
363
at the national level, the housing market is stabilizing, although there are still significant adjustments underway in some regions.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
940
the bank expects inflation to return to the 2 per cent target in about two years, as the effects of retail competition dissipate and excess capacity is absorbed.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,014
649
the complex nature of the ongoing structural adjustment makes the outlook for demand and potential output highly uncertain.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
15
cpi inflation is expected to be close to 0 percent in the second quarter of 2020.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
342
overall, the bank forecasts gdp growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
798
the canadian economy is starting to recover as it re-opens from the shutdowns needed to limit the virus spread.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
873
the bank now forecasts real gdp growth of 6 ½ percent in 2021, moderating to around 3 ¾ percent in 2022 and 3 ¼ percent in 2023.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
123
growth will likely be choppy as domestic demand is influenced by the evolution of the virus and its impact on consumer and business confidence.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
906
in canada, growth improved in the second half of 2013.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
722
economic growth is expected to strengthen gradually around the middle of 2024.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
110
while the covid-19 virus continues to mutate and circulate, high rates of vaccination have reduced its health and economic impacts.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
31
the three main upside risks to inflation in canada relate to the possibility of higher-than-projected commodity prices and global inflation, stronger momentum in canadian household spending, and the possibility that there is less excess capacity in the canadian economy.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
664
however, wage and other data indicate that there is still slack in the labour market.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
720
sentiment, though, remains fragile.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
521
in this context, household credit growth continues to moderate and housing activity across canada is stabilizing.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
175
in the bank’s october projection, cpi inflation is expected to average about 3½% through the middle of next year before gradually easing to 2% in 2025.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
392
weaker demand and higher borrowing costs are weighing on business investment.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
817
the bank expects inflation to remain close to 3% during the first half of this year before gradually easing, returning to the 2% target in 2025.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
953
the temporary effects of exchange-rate pass-through and past declines in consumer energy prices are expected to dissipate in late 2016, and the bank projects that inflation will average close to 2 per cent throughout 2017 as the output gap narrows.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
328
the bank’s april monetary policy report (mpr) projects global growth of 2.6% this year, 2.1% in 2024, and 2.8% in 2025.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
126
china’s economy is being held back by waves of restrictive measures to contain covid-19 outbreaks.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
4
we remain committed to providing the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
889
weaker oil prices will pull down the inflation profile.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
989
the disasters that struck japan in march will severely affect its economic activity in the first half of this year.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,011
726
however, there are signs of stabilization around current growth rates.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,012
414
overall, gdp growth is projected to be weak through the remainder of this year before strengthening gradually next year.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
965
canada’s economy has been stronger than expected, with more momentum in demand.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
661
the bank now expects global gdp to grow by 3 percent in 2019 and to strengthen to around 3 ¼ percent in 2020 and 2021, with the us slowing to a pace near its potential.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
9
in canada, the economy has stalled since the middle of 2023 and growth will likely remain close to zero through the first quarter of 2024.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
197
the global economy is on a modestly stronger track than forecast in january, with upward revisions to growth and potential output in a number of major advanced economies.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
435
the provincial and corporate bond purchase programs will continue as announced.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
553
near-term inflation expectations remain high, increasing the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
887
on the supply side, shortages of manufacturing inputs, transportation bottlenecks, and difficulties in matching jobs to workers are limiting the economy’s productive capacity.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
160
governing council wants to see downward momentum in core inflation, and continues to be focused on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
637
growth in advanced economies is projected to be stronger than in the bank’s october monetary policy report (mpr).
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
950
the protracted process of reorientation towards non-resource activity is underway, helped by stronger u.s. demand, the lower canadian dollar, and accommodative monetary and financial conditions.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,016
799
as the effects of interest rate increases continue to work through the economy, spending on consumer services and business investment are expected to slow.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
88
an additional downside risk to inflation in canada relates to household spending, which could be weaker than projected, given high household debt levels.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
487