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Nov 17

Eulerian-Lagrangian particle-based model for diffusional growth for the better parameterization of ISM clouds: A road map for improving climate model through small-scale model using observations

The quantitative prediction of the intensity of rainfall events (light or heavy) has remained a challenge in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. For the first time the mean coefficient of diffusional growth rates are calculated using an Eulerian-Lagrangian particle-based small-scale model on in situ airborne measurement data of Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) during monsoon over Indian sub-continent. The results show that diffusional growth rates varies in the range of 0.00025 - 0.0015(cm/s). The generic problem of the overestimation of light rain in NWP models might be related with the choice of cm in the model. It is also shown from DNS experiment using Eulerian-Lagrangian particle-based small-scale model that the relative dispersion is constrained with average values in the range of ~ 0.2 - 0.37 (~ 0.1- 0.26) in less humid (more humid) conditions. This is in agreement with in situ airborne observation (dispersion ~ 0.36) and previous study over Indian sub-continent. The linear relationship between relative dispersion and cloud droplet number concentration (NC) is obtained from this study using CAIPEEX observation over Indian subcontinent. The dispersion based autoconversion-scheme for Indian region must be useful for the Indian summer monsoon precipitation calculation in the general circulation model. The present study also provide valuable guidance for the parameterization of effective radius, important for radiation scheme.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 2, 2023

Super-Eddington Accretion in Quasars

This review provides an observational perspective on the fundamental properties of super-Eddington accretion onto supermassive black holes in quasars. It begins by outlining the selection criteria, particularly focusing on optical and UV broad-line intensity ratios, used to identify a population of unobscured super-Eddington candidates. Several defining features place these candidates at the extreme end of the Population A in main sequence of quasars: among them are the highest observed singly-ionized iron emission, extreme outflow velocities in UV resonance lines, and unusually high metal abundances. These key properties reflect the coexistence of a virialized sub-system within the broad-line region alongside powerful outflows, with the observed gas enrichment likely driven by nuclear or circumnuclear star formation. The most compelling evidence for the occurrence of super-Eddington accretion onto supermassive black holes comes from recent observations of massive black holes at early cosmic epochs. These black holes require rapid growth rates that are only achievable through radiatively inefficient super-Eddington accretion. Furthermore, extreme Eddington ratios, close to or slightly exceeding unity, are consistent with the saturation of radiative output per unit mass predicted by accretion disk theory for super-Eddington accretion rates. The extreme properties of super-Eddington candidates suggest that these quasars could make them stable and well-defined cosmological distance indicators, leveraging the correlation between broad-line width and luminosity expected in virialized systems. Finally, several analogies with accretion processes around stellar-mass black holes, particularly in the high/soft state, are explored to provide additional insight into the mechanisms driving super-Eddington accretion.

  • 8 authors
·
Feb 20

Dynamic Factor Analysis of Price Movements in the Philippine Stock Exchange

The intricate dynamics of stock markets have led to extensive research on models that are able to effectively explain their inherent complexities. This study leverages the econometrics literature to explore the dynamic factor model as an interpretable model with sufficient predictive capabilities for capturing essential market phenomena. Although the model has been extensively applied for predictive purposes, this study focuses on analyzing the extracted loadings and common factors as an alternative framework for understanding stock price dynamics. The results reveal novel insights into traditional market theories when applied to the Philippine Stock Exchange using the Kalman method and maximum likelihood estimation, with subsequent validation against the capital asset pricing model. Notably, a one-factor model extracts a common factor representing systematic or market dynamics similar to the composite index, whereas a two-factor model extracts common factors representing market trends and volatility. Furthermore, an application of the model for nowcasting the growth rates of the Philippine gross domestic product highlights the potential of the extracted common factors as viable real-time market indicators, yielding over a 34% decrease in the out-of-sample prediction error. Overall, the results underscore the value of dynamic factor analysis in gaining a deeper understanding of market price movement dynamics.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 8

Normalization and effective learning rates in reinforcement learning

Normalization layers have recently experienced a renaissance in the deep reinforcement learning and continual learning literature, with several works highlighting diverse benefits such as improving loss landscape conditioning and combatting overestimation bias. However, normalization brings with it a subtle but important side effect: an equivalence between growth in the norm of the network parameters and decay in the effective learning rate. This becomes problematic in continual learning settings, where the resulting effective learning rate schedule may decay to near zero too quickly relative to the timescale of the learning problem. We propose to make the learning rate schedule explicit with a simple re-parameterization which we call Normalize-and-Project (NaP), which couples the insertion of normalization layers with weight projection, ensuring that the effective learning rate remains constant throughout training. This technique reveals itself as a powerful analytical tool to better understand learning rate schedules in deep reinforcement learning, and as a means of improving robustness to nonstationarity in synthetic plasticity loss benchmarks along with both the single-task and sequential variants of the Arcade Learning Environment. We also show that our approach can be easily applied to popular architectures such as ResNets and transformers while recovering and in some cases even slightly improving the performance of the base model in common stationary benchmarks.

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 1, 2024

SSDTrain: An Activation Offloading Framework to SSDs for Faster Large Language Model Training

The growth rate of the GPU memory capacity has not been able to keep up with that of the size of large language models (LLMs), hindering the model training process. In particular, activations -- the intermediate tensors produced during forward propagation and reused in backward propagation -- dominate the GPU memory use. This leads to high training overhead such as high weight update cost due to the small micro-batch size. To address this challenge, we propose SSDTrain, an adaptive activation offloading framework to high-capacity NVMe SSDs. SSDTrain reduces GPU memory usage without impacting performance by fully overlapping data transfers with computation. SSDTrain is compatible with popular deep learning frameworks like PyTorch, Megatron, and DeepSpeed, and it employs techniques such as tensor deduplication and forwarding to further enhance efficiency. We extensively experimented with popular LLMs like GPT, BERT, and T5. Results demonstrate that SSDTrain reduces 47% of the activation peak memory usage. Meanwhile, SSDTrain perfectly overlaps the I/O with the computation and incurs negligible overhead. Compared with keeping activations in GPU memory and layerwise full recomputation, SSDTrain achieves the best memory savings with negligible throughput loss. We further analyze how the reduced activation memory use may be leveraged to increase throughput by increasing micro-batch size and reducing pipeline parallelism bubbles.

  • 8 authors
·
Aug 19, 2024

Time Series Forecasting of HIV/AIDS in the Philippines Using Deep Learning: Does COVID-19 Epidemic Matter?

With a 676% growth rate in HIV incidence between 2010 and 2021, the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the Philippines is the one that is spreading the quickest in the western Pacific. Although the full effects of COVID-19 on HIV services and development are still unknown, it is predicted that such disruptions could lead to a significant increase in HIV casualties. Therefore, the nation needs some modeling and forecasting techniques to foresee the spread pattern and enhance the governments prevention, treatment, testing, and care program. In this study, the researcher uses Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network to forecast time series during the period when the COVID-19 pandemic strikes the nation, using statistics taken from the HIV/AIDS and ART Registry of the Philippines. After training, validation, and testing of data, the study finds that the predicted cumulative cases in the nation by 2030 will reach 145,273. Additionally, there is very little difference between observed and anticipated HIV epidemic levels, as evidenced by reduced RMSE, MAE, and MAPE values as well as a greater coefficient of determination. Further research revealed that the Philippines seems far from achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3 of Project 2030 due to an increase in the nations rate of new HIV infections. Despite the detrimental effects of COVID-19 spread on HIV/AIDS efforts nationwide, the Philippine government, under the Marcos administration, must continue to adhere to the United Nations 90-90-90 targets by enhancing its ART program and ensuring that all vital health services are readily accessible and available.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 11, 2024

Self-Expansion of Pre-trained Models with Mixture of Adapters for Continual Learning

Continual learning (CL) aims to continually accumulate knowledge from a non-stationary data stream without catastrophic forgetting of learned knowledge, requiring a balance between stability and adaptability. Relying on the generalizable representation in pre-trained models (PTMs), PTM-based CL methods perform effective continual adaptation on downstream tasks by adding learnable adapters or prompts upon the frozen PTMs. However, many existing PTM-based CL methods use restricted adaptation on a fixed set of these modules to avoid forgetting, suffering from limited CL ability. Periodically adding task-specific modules results in linear model growth rate and impaired knowledge reuse. We propose Self-Expansion of pre-trained models with Modularized Adaptation (SEMA), a novel approach to enhance the control of stability-plasticity balance in PTM-based CL. SEMA automatically decides to reuse or add adapter modules on demand in CL, depending on whether significant distribution shift that cannot be handled is detected at different representation levels. We design modular adapter consisting of a functional adapter and a representation descriptor. The representation descriptors are trained as a distribution shift indicator and used to trigger self-expansion signals. For better composing the adapters, an expandable weighting router is learned jointly for mixture of adapter outputs. SEMA enables better knowledge reuse and sub-linear expansion rate. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed self-expansion method, achieving state-of-the-art performance compared to PTM-based CL methods without memory rehearsal. Code is available at https://github.com/huiyiwang01/SEMA-CL.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 27, 2024

OCTCube-M: A 3D multimodal optical coherence tomography foundation model for retinal and systemic diseases with cross-cohort and cross-device validation

We present OCTCube-M, a 3D OCT-based multi-modal foundation model for jointly analyzing OCT and en face images. OCTCube-M first developed OCTCube, a 3D foundation model pre-trained on 26,685 3D OCT volumes encompassing 1.62 million 2D OCT images. It then exploits a novel multi-modal contrastive learning framework COEP to integrate other retinal imaging modalities, such as fundus autofluorescence and infrared retinal imaging, into OCTCube, efficiently extending it into multi-modal foundation models. OCTCube achieves best performance on predicting 8 retinal diseases, demonstrating strong generalizability on cross-cohort, cross-device and cross-modality prediction. OCTCube can also predict cross-organ nodule malignancy (CT) and low cardiac ejection fraction as well as systemic diseases, such as diabetes and hypertension, revealing its wide applicability beyond retinal diseases. We further develop OCTCube-IR using COEP with 26,685 OCT and IR image pairs. OCTCube-IR can accurately retrieve between OCT and IR images, allowing joint analysis between 3D and 2D retinal imaging modalities. Finally, we trained a tri-modal foundation model OCTCube-EF from 4 million 2D OCT images and 400K en face retinal images. OCTCube-EF attains the best performance on predicting the growth rate of geographic atrophy (GA) across datasets collected from 6 multi-center global trials conducted in 23 countries. This improvement is statistically equivalent to running a clinical trial with more than double the size of the original study. Our analysis based on another retrospective case study reveals OCTCube-EF's ability to avoid false positive Phase-III results according to its accurate treatment effect estimation on the Phase-II results. In sum, OCTCube-M is a 3D multi-modal foundation model framework that integrates OCT and other retinal imaging modalities revealing substantial diagnostic and prognostic benefits.

  • 12 authors
·
Aug 20, 2024

The Debate on RLVR Reasoning Capability Boundary: Shrinkage, Expansion, or Both? A Two-Stage Dynamic View

The ongoing debate on whether reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) expands or shrinks the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) remains unresolved. Some studies contend that RLVR mainly improves sampling efficiency but at the expense of diversity and exploratory capacity, resulting in capability boundary shrinkage. In contrast, others demonstrate that prolonged training can lead to the emergence of novel reasoning strategies, suggesting capability boundary expansion. To reconcile these contradictory findings, we theoretically and empirically show that both perspectives are partially valid-each aligning with a separate phase in an inherent two-stage probability mass dynamic: (1) Exploitation stage: initially, the model primarily samples explored high-reward and low-reward tokens, while rarely selecting the potentially optimal token. Positive advantage estimates increase the probability of high-reward tokens and decrease those of low-reward tokens, yet the optimal token's probability remains largely unchanged during this stage. (2) Exploration stage: as training advances, the growth rate of previously acquired high-reward tokens slows as their probabilities approach saturation. When a potentially optimal token-now receiving positive advantage estimates-is occasionally sampled, its probability increases, while those of the originally high-reward tokens decrease. This dynamic suggests that over-exploitation during the exploitation stage may lead to capability boundary shrinkage, whereas prolonged training into the exploration stage can promote an expansion of the reasoning capability boundary. Building upon our insights, we revisit the potential of only using relative negative gradients for prolonging training, providing a theoretical and empirical foundation for the development of more advanced reasoning capabilities.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 5

SCOUT: Toward Sub-Quadratic Attention via Segment Compression for Optimized Utility in Transformers

Transformers have demonstrated strong performance across a wide range of sequence modeling tasks, but their quadratic attention complexity limits scalability to long sequences. Linear models such as Mamba and sliding-window attention (SWA) address this by mixing tokens through recurrent or localized operations with fixed-size memory, achieving efficient inference. However, these methods risk degrading performance on long sequences due to their inability to retain detailed information from distant tokens. We propose SCOUT (Segment Compression for Optimized Utility in Transformers), a hybrid architecture that compresses tokens locally within fixed-size segments and applies attention only over these compressed representations. Each token embedding is first enriched via a linear local mixer, Mamba or SWA, that integrates recent context. Then, instead of attending to all previous tokens, each token sparsely attends to a small number of compressed checkpoint tokens that summarize the input history. This design retains much of the expressivity of full attention while substantially reducing the computational and memory cost. By attending to compressed history rather than all previous tokens, SCOUT incurs slightly higher memory than purely linear models, but its growth rate remains sub-quadratic and far more scalable than that of full Transformers. We analyze SCOUT's computational and memory efficiency and evaluate it empirically on long-context language modeling and reasoning tasks. SCOUT with both Mamba and SWA mixers outperforms strong long-sequence baselines under the same computational budget, matches full-attention Transformers on language modeling and common-sense reasoning tasks at 400M and 1.3B scales. Moreover, our SCOUT achieves higher end-to-end throughput than SOTA models, while delivering comparable results on long sequence benchmarks.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 31

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 Constraints on Extended Cosmological Models

We use new cosmic microwave background (CMB) primary temperature and polarization anisotropy measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6) to test foundational assumptions of the standard cosmological model and set constraints on extensions to it. We derive constraints from the ACT DR6 power spectra alone, as well as in combination with legacy data from Planck. To break geometric degeneracies, we include ACT and Planck CMB lensing data and baryon acoustic oscillation data from DESI Year-1, and further add supernovae measurements from Pantheon+ for models that affect the late-time expansion history. We verify the near-scale-invariance (running of the spectral index d n_s/dln k = 0.0062 pm 0.0052) and adiabaticity of the primordial perturbations. Neutrino properties are consistent with Standard Model predictions: we find no evidence for new light, relativistic species that are free-streaming (N_{rm eff} = 2.86 pm 0.13, which combined with external BBN data becomes N_{rm eff} = 2.89 pm 0.11), for non-zero neutrino masses (sum m_nu < 0.082 eV at 95% CL), or for neutrino self-interactions. We also find no evidence for self-interacting dark radiation (N_{rm idr} < 0.134), early-universe variation of fundamental constants, early dark energy, primordial magnetic fields, or modified recombination. Our data are consistent with standard BBN, the FIRAS-inferred CMB temperature, a dark matter component that is collisionless and with only a small fraction allowed as axion-like particles, a cosmological constant, and the late-time growth rate predicted by general relativity. We find no statistically significant preference for a departure from the baseline LambdaCDM model. In general, models introduced to increase the Hubble constant or to decrease the amplitude of density fluctuations inferred from the primary CMB are not favored by our data.

  • 172 authors
·
Mar 18