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Nov 21

Forecasting S&P 500 Using LSTM Models

With the volatile and complex nature of financial data influenced by external factors, forecasting the stock market is challenging. Traditional models such as ARIMA and GARCH perform well with linear data but struggle with non-linear dependencies. Machine learning and deep learning models, particularly Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, address these challenges by capturing intricate patterns and long-term dependencies. This report compares ARIMA and LSTM models in predicting the S&P 500 index, a major financial benchmark. Using historical price data and technical indicators, we evaluated these models using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The ARIMA model showed reasonable performance with an MAE of 462.1, RMSE of 614, and 89.8 percent accuracy, effectively capturing short-term trends but limited by its linear assumptions. The LSTM model, leveraging sequential processing capabilities, outperformed ARIMA with an MAE of 369.32, RMSE of 412.84, and 92.46 percent accuracy, capturing both short- and long-term dependencies. Notably, the LSTM model without additional features performed best, achieving an MAE of 175.9, RMSE of 207.34, and 96.41 percent accuracy, showcasing its ability to handle market data efficiently. Accurately predicting stock movements is crucial for investment strategies, risk assessments, and market stability. Our findings confirm the potential of deep learning models in handling volatile financial data compared to traditional ones. The results highlight the effectiveness of LSTM and suggest avenues for further improvements. This study provides insights into financial forecasting, offering a comparative analysis of ARIMA and LSTM while outlining their strengths and limitations.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 28

FinAgentBench: A Benchmark Dataset for Agentic Retrieval in Financial Question Answering

Accurate information retrieval (IR) is critical in the financial domain, where investors must identify relevant information from large collections of documents. Traditional IR methods -- whether sparse or dense -- often fall short in retrieval accuracy, as it requires not only capturing semantic similarity but also performing fine-grained reasoning over document structure and domain-specific knowledge. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have opened up new opportunities for retrieval with multi-step reasoning, where the model ranks passages through iterative reasoning about which information is most relevant to a given query. However, there exists no benchmark to evaluate such capabilities in the financial domain. To address this gap, we introduce FinAgentBench, the first large-scale benchmark for evaluating retrieval with multi-step reasoning in finance -- a setting we term agentic retrieval. The benchmark consists of 26K expert-annotated examples on S&P-500 listed firms and assesses whether LLM agents can (1) identify the most relevant document type among candidates, and (2) pinpoint the key passage within the selected document. Our evaluation framework explicitly separates these two reasoning steps to address context limitations. This design enables to provide a quantitative basis for understanding retrieval-centric LLM behavior in finance. We evaluate a suite of state-of-the-art models and further demonstrated how targeted fine-tuning can significantly improve agentic retrieval performance. Our benchmark provides a foundation for studying retrieval-centric LLM behavior in complex, domain-specific tasks for finance.

  • 11 authors
·
Aug 7

Risk forecasting using Long Short-Term Memory Mixture Density Networks

This work aims to implement Long Short-Term Memory mixture density networks (LSTM-MDNs) for Value-at-Risk forecasting and compare their performance with established models (historical simulation, CMM, and GARCH) using a defined backtesting procedure. The focus was on the neural network's ability to capture volatility clustering and its real-world applicability. Three architectures were tested: a 2-component mixture density network, a regularized 2-component model (Arimond et al., 2020), and a 3-component mixture model, the latter being tested for the first time in Value-at-Risk forecasting. Backtesting was performed on three stock indices (FTSE 100, S&P 500, EURO STOXX 50) over two distinct two-year periods (2017-2018 as a calm period, 2021-2022 as turbulent). Model performance was assessed through unconditional coverage and independence assumption tests. The neural network's ability to handle volatility clustering was validated via correlation analysis and graphical evaluation. Results show limited success for the neural network approach. LSTM-MDNs performed poorly for 2017/2018 but outperformed benchmark models in 2021/2022. The LSTM mechanism allowed the neural network to capture volatility clustering similarly to GARCH models. However, several issues were identified: the need for proper model initialization and reliance on large datasets for effective learning. The findings suggest that while LSTM-MDNs provide adequate risk forecasts, further research and adjustments are necessary for stable performance.

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 2

Hedging Properties of Algorithmic Investment Strategies using Long Short-Term Memory and Time Series models for Equity Indices

This paper proposes a novel approach to hedging portfolios of risky assets when financial markets are affected by financial turmoils. We introduce a completely novel approach to diversification activity not on the level of single assets but on the level of ensemble algorithmic investment strategies (AIS) built based on the prices of these assets. We employ four types of diverse theoretical models (LSTM - Long Short-Term Memory, ARIMA-GARCH - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, momentum, and contrarian) to generate price forecasts, which are then used to produce investment signals in single and complex AIS. In such a way, we are able to verify the diversification potential of different types of investment strategies consisting of various assets (energy commodities, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, or soft commodities) in hedging ensemble AIS built for equity indices (S&P 500 index). Empirical data used in this study cover the period between 2004 and 2022. Our main conclusion is that LSTM-based strategies outperform the other models and that the best diversifier for the AIS built for the S&P 500 index is the AIS built for Bitcoin. Finally, we test the LSTM model for a higher frequency of data (1 hour). We conclude that it outperforms the results obtained using daily data.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 27, 2023

Selection Function of Clusters in Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Data from Cross-Matching with South Pole Telescope Detections

Galaxy clusters selected based on overdensities of galaxies in photometric surveys provide the largest cluster samples. Yet modeling the selection function of such samples is complicated by non-cluster members projected along the line of sight (projection effects) and the potential detection of unvirialized objects (contamination). We empirically constrain the magnitude of these effects by cross-matching galaxy clusters selected in the Dark Energy survey data with the \rdmpr, algorithm with significant detections in three South Pole Telescope surveys (SZ, pol-ECS, pol-500d). For matched clusters, we augment the \rdmpr,catalog by the SPT detection significance. For unmatched objects we use the SPT detection threshold as an upper limit on the SZe signature. Using a Bayesian population model applied to the collected multi-wavelength data, we explore various physically motivated models to describe the relationship between observed richness and halo mass. Our analysis reveals the limitations of a simple lognormal scatter model in describing the data. We rule out significant contamination by unvirialized objects at the high-richness end of the sample. While dedicated simulations offer a well-fitting calibration of projection effects, our findings suggest the presence of redshift-dependent trends that these simulations may not have captured. Our findings highlight that modeling the selection function of optically detected clusters remains a complicated challenge, requiring a combination of simulation and data-driven approaches.

  • 55 authors
·
Feb 18

CheXpert: A Large Chest Radiograph Dataset with Uncertainty Labels and Expert Comparison

Large, labeled datasets have driven deep learning methods to achieve expert-level performance on a variety of medical imaging tasks. We present CheXpert, a large dataset that contains 224,316 chest radiographs of 65,240 patients. We design a labeler to automatically detect the presence of 14 observations in radiology reports, capturing uncertainties inherent in radiograph interpretation. We investigate different approaches to using the uncertainty labels for training convolutional neural networks that output the probability of these observations given the available frontal and lateral radiographs. On a validation set of 200 chest radiographic studies which were manually annotated by 3 board-certified radiologists, we find that different uncertainty approaches are useful for different pathologies. We then evaluate our best model on a test set composed of 500 chest radiographic studies annotated by a consensus of 5 board-certified radiologists, and compare the performance of our model to that of 3 additional radiologists in the detection of 5 selected pathologies. On Cardiomegaly, Edema, and Pleural Effusion, the model ROC and PR curves lie above all 3 radiologist operating points. We release the dataset to the public as a standard benchmark to evaluate performance of chest radiograph interpretation models. The dataset is freely available at https://stanfordmlgroup.github.io/competitions/chexpert .

  • 20 authors
·
Jan 21, 2019

The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE)

The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE), one of the programs in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III (SDSS-III), has now completed its systematic, homogeneous spectroscopic survey sampling all major populations of the Milky Way. After a three year observing campaign on the Sloan 2.5-m Telescope, APOGEE has collected a half million high resolution (R~22,500), high S/N (>100), infrared (1.51-1.70 microns) spectra for 146,000 stars, with time series information via repeat visits to most of these stars. This paper describes the motivations for the survey and its overall design---hardware, field placement, target selection, operations---and gives an overview of these aspects as well as the data reduction, analysis and products. An index is also given to the complement of technical papers that describe various critical survey components in detail. Finally, we discuss the achieved survey performance and illustrate the variety of potential uses of the data products by way of a number of science demonstrations, which span from time series analysis of stellar spectral variations and radial velocity variations from stellar companions, to spatial maps of kinematics, metallicity and abundance patterns across the Galaxy and as a function of age, to new views of the interstellar medium, the chemistry of star clusters, and the discovery of rare stellar species. As part of SDSS-III Data Release 12, all of the APOGEE data products are now publicly available.

  • 78 authors
·
Sep 17, 2015

DESI 2024 V: Full-Shape Galaxy Clustering from Galaxies and Quasars

We present the measurements and cosmological implications of the galaxy two-point clustering using over 4.7 million unique galaxy and quasar redshifts in the range 0.1<z<2.1 divided into six redshift bins over a sim 7,500 square degree footprint, from the first year of observations with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI Data Release 1). By fitting the full power spectrum, we extend previous DESI DR1 baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements to include redshift-space distortions and signals from the matter-radiation equality scale. For the first time, this Full-Shape analysis is blinded at the catalogue-level to avoid confirmation bias and the systematic errors are accounted for at the two-point clustering level, which automatically propagates them into any cosmological parameter. When analysing the data in terms of compressed model-agnostic variables, we obtain a combined precision of 4.7\% on the amplitude of the redshift space distortion signal reaching similar precision with just one year of DESI data than with 20 years of observation from previous generation surveys. We analyse the data to directly constrain the cosmological parameters within the LambdaCDM model using perturbation theory and combine this information with the reconstructed DESI DR1 galaxy BAO. Using a Big Bang Nucleosynthesis Gaussian prior on the baryon density parameter, and a Gaussian prior on the spectral index, we constrain the matter density is Omega_m=0.296pm 0.010 and the Hubble constant H_0=(68.63 pm 0.79)[{rm km, s^{-1}Mpc^{-1}}]. Additionally, we measure the amplitude of clustering sigma_8=0.841 pm 0.034. The DESI DR1 results are in agreement with the LambdaCDM model based on general relativity with parameters consistent with those from Planck. The cosmological interpretation of these results in combination with external datasets are presented in a companion paper.

  • 198 authors
·
Nov 18, 2024

The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) Spectrographs

We describe the design and performance of the near-infrared (1.51--1.70 micron), fiber-fed, multi-object (300 fibers), high resolution (R = lambda/delta lambda ~ 22,500) spectrograph built for the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE). APOGEE is a survey of ~ 10^5 red giant stars that systematically sampled all Milky Way populations (bulge, disk, and halo) to study the Galaxy's chemical and kinematical history. It was part of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III (SDSS-III) from 2011 -- 2014 using the 2.5 m Sloan Foundation Telescope at Apache Point Observatory, New Mexico. The APOGEE-2 survey is now using the spectrograph as part of SDSS-IV, as well as a second spectrograph, a close copy of the first, operating at the 2.5 m du Pont Telescope at Las Campanas Observatory in Chile. Although several fiber-fed, multi-object, high resolution spectrographs have been built for visual wavelength spectroscopy, the APOGEE spectrograph is one of the first such instruments built for observations in the near-infrared. The instrument's successful development was enabled by several key innovations, including a "gang connector" to allow simultaneous connections of 300 fibers; hermetically sealed feedthroughs to allow fibers to pass through the cryostat wall continuously; the first cryogenically deployed mosaic volume phase holographic grating; and a large refractive camera that includes mono-crystalline silicon and fused silica elements with diameters as large as ~ 400 mm. This paper contains a comprehensive description of all aspects of the instrument including the fiber system, optics and opto-mechanics, detector arrays, mechanics and cryogenics, instrument control, calibration system, optical performance and stability, lessons learned, and design changes for the second instrument.

  • 89 authors
·
Feb 3, 2019

Overview of the JWST Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey (JADES)

We present an overview of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey (JADES), an ambitious program of infrared imaging and spectroscopy in the GOODS-S and GOODS-N deep fields, designed to study galaxy evolution from high redshift to cosmic noon. JADES uses about 770 hours of Cycle 1 guaranteed time largely from the Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) and Near-Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSpec) instrument teams. In GOODS-S, in and around the Hubble Ultra Deep Field and Chandra Deep Field South, JADES produces a deep imaging region of ~45 arcmin^2 with an average of 130 hrs of exposure time spread over 9 NIRCam filters. This is extended at medium depth in GOODS-S and GOODS-N with NIRCam imaging of ~175 arcmin^2 with an average exposure time of 20 hrs spread over 8-10 filters. In both fields, we conduct extensive NIRSpec multi-object spectroscopy, including 2 deep pointings of 55 hrs exposure time, 14 medium pointings of ~12 hrs, and 15 shallower pointings of ~4 hrs, targeting over 5000 HST and JWST-detected faint sources with 5 low, medium, and high-resolution dispersers covering 0.6-5.3 microns. Finally, JADES extends redward via coordinated parallels with the JWST Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI), featuring ~9 arcmin^2 with 43 hours of exposure at 7.7 microns and twice that area with 2-6.5 hours of exposure at 12.8 microns For nearly 30 years, the GOODS-S and GOODS-N fields have been developed as the premier deep fields on the sky; JADES is now providing a compelling start on the JWST legacy in these fields.

  • 76 authors
·
Jun 4, 2023

FNSPID: A Comprehensive Financial News Dataset in Time Series

Financial market predictions utilize historical data to anticipate future stock prices and market trends. Traditionally, these predictions have focused on the statistical analysis of quantitative factors, such as stock prices, trading volumes, inflation rates, and changes in industrial production. Recent advancements in large language models motivate the integrated financial analysis of both sentiment data, particularly market news, and numerical factors. Nonetheless, this methodology frequently encounters constraints due to the paucity of extensive datasets that amalgamate both quantitative and qualitative sentiment analyses. To address this challenge, we introduce a large-scale financial dataset, namely, Financial News and Stock Price Integration Dataset (FNSPID). It comprises 29.7 million stock prices and 15.7 million time-aligned financial news records for 4,775 S&P500 companies, covering the period from 1999 to 2023, sourced from 4 stock market news websites. We demonstrate that FNSPID excels existing stock market datasets in scale and diversity while uniquely incorporating sentiment information. Through financial analysis experiments on FNSPID, we propose: (1) the dataset's size and quality significantly boost market prediction accuracy; (2) adding sentiment scores modestly enhances performance on the transformer-based model; (3) a reproducible procedure that can update the dataset. Completed work, code, documentation, and examples are available at github.com/Zdong104/FNSPID. FNSPID offers unprecedented opportunities for the financial research community to advance predictive modeling and analysis.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 8, 2024

Feature Learning for Stock Price Prediction Shows a Significant Role of Analyst Rating

To reject the Efficient Market Hypothesis a set of 5 technical indicators and 23 fundamental indicators was identified to establish the possibility of generating excess returns on the stock market. Leveraging these data points and various classification machine learning models, trading data of the 505 equities on the US S&P500 over the past 20 years was analysed to develop a classifier effective for our cause. From any given day, we were able to predict the direction of change in price by 1% up to 10 days in the future. The predictions had an overall accuracy of 83.62% with a precision of 85% for buy signals and a recall of 100% for sell signals. Moreover, we grouped equities by their sector and repeated the experiment to see if grouping similar assets together positively effected the results but concluded that it showed no significant improvements in the performance rejecting the idea of sector-based analysis. Also, using feature ranking we could identify an even smaller set of 6 indicators while maintaining similar accuracies as that from the original 28 features and also uncovered the importance of buy, hold and sell analyst ratings as they came out to be the top contributors in the model. Finally, to evaluate the effectiveness of the classifier in real-life situations, it was backtested on FAANG equities using a modest trading strategy where it generated high returns of above 60% over the term of the testing dataset. In conclusion, our proposed methodology with the combination of purposefully picked features shows an improvement over the previous studies, and our model predicts the direction of 1% price changes on the 10th day with high confidence and with enough buffer to even build a robotic trading system.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 12, 2021

Crowdsourcing Dermatology Images with Google Search Ads: Creating a Real-World Skin Condition Dataset

Background: Health datasets from clinical sources do not reflect the breadth and diversity of disease in the real world, impacting research, medical education, and artificial intelligence (AI) tool development. Dermatology is a suitable area to develop and test a new and scalable method to create representative health datasets. Methods: We used Google Search advertisements to invite contributions to an open access dataset of images of dermatology conditions, demographic and symptom information. With informed contributor consent, we describe and release this dataset containing 10,408 images from 5,033 contributions from internet users in the United States over 8 months starting March 2023. The dataset includes dermatologist condition labels as well as estimated Fitzpatrick Skin Type (eFST) and Monk Skin Tone (eMST) labels for the images. Results: We received a median of 22 submissions/day (IQR 14-30). Female (66.72%) and younger (52% < age 40) contributors had a higher representation in the dataset compared to the US population, and 32.6% of contributors reported a non-White racial or ethnic identity. Over 97.5% of contributions were genuine images of skin conditions. Dermatologist confidence in assigning a differential diagnosis increased with the number of available variables, and showed a weaker correlation with image sharpness (Spearman's P values <0.001 and 0.01 respectively). Most contributions were short-duration (54% with onset < 7 days ago ) and 89% were allergic, infectious, or inflammatory conditions. eFST and eMST distributions reflected the geographical origin of the dataset. The dataset is available at github.com/google-research-datasets/scin . Conclusion: Search ads are effective at crowdsourcing images of health conditions. The SCIN dataset bridges important gaps in the availability of representative images of common skin conditions.

  • 20 authors
·
Feb 28, 2024

PhysVLM: Enabling Visual Language Models to Understand Robotic Physical Reachability

Understanding the environment and a robot's physical reachability is crucial for task execution. While state-of-the-art vision-language models (VLMs) excel in environmental perception, they often generate inaccurate or impractical responses in embodied visual reasoning tasks due to a lack of understanding of robotic physical reachability. To address this issue, we propose a unified representation of physical reachability across diverse robots, i.e., Space-Physical Reachability Map (S-P Map), and PhysVLM, a vision-language model that integrates this reachability information into visual reasoning. Specifically, the S-P Map abstracts a robot's physical reachability into a generalized spatial representation, independent of specific robot configurations, allowing the model to focus on reachability features rather than robot-specific parameters. Subsequently, PhysVLM extends traditional VLM architectures by incorporating an additional feature encoder to process the S-P Map, enabling the model to reason about physical reachability without compromising its general vision-language capabilities. To train and evaluate PhysVLM, we constructed a large-scale multi-robot dataset, Phys100K, and a challenging benchmark, EQA-phys, which includes tasks for six different robots in both simulated and real-world environments. Experimental results demonstrate that PhysVLM outperforms existing models, achieving a 14\% improvement over GPT-4o on EQA-phys and surpassing advanced embodied VLMs such as RoboMamba and SpatialVLM on the RoboVQA-val and OpenEQA benchmarks. Additionally, the S-P Map shows strong compatibility with various VLMs, and its integration into GPT-4o-mini yields a 7.1\% performance improvement.

  • 7 authors
·
Mar 11

Characterising the Atmosphere of 55 Cancri e: 1D Forward Model Grid for Current and Future JWST Observations

Recent JWST observations with NIRCam and MIRI of the ultra-short-period super-Earth 55 Cancri e indicate a possible volatile atmosphere surrounding the planet. Previous analysis of the NIRCam spectra suggested potential absorption features from CO2 or CO and significant sub-weekly variability. The MIRI low-resolution spectrum does not contain substantial features but was found to be consistent with effective heat redistribution models. In this work, we computed a grid of over 25000 self-consistent 1D forward models incorporating H-N-O-C-S-P-Si-Ti equilibrium chemistry and assessed plausible atmospheric compositions based on the current JWST data. Despite exhaustive analysis, the composition and properties of the atmosphere remain elusive. While our results statistically favour a global, hydrogen-free, nitrogen-dominated atmosphere enriched in PO and CO2, various alternative compositions, including H2O-,CO-, PH3-, or Si-bearing remain viable explanations. Unconstrained heat redistribution efficiency and absolute NIRCam flux are among the largest sources of uncertainty in our analysis. We also find that the heat redistribution factor and surface pressure are highly degenerate with atmospheric composition, and that these parameters cannot be independently constrained using current JWST observations. Furthermore, we show that the observed variability may arise from dynamic interactions between the atmosphere and an underlying magma ocean, driving rapid shifts in atmospheric chemistry and thermal emission. Our results highlight the importance of using self-consistent forward models when analysing novel JWST spectra with limited signal-to-noise ratios -- such as those of 55 Cancri e -- as it allows for a more comprehensive evaluation of potential atmospheric scenarios while also being less sensitive to subtle spectral differences than retrievals...

  • 12 authors
·
Mar 20

FinReflectKG -- MultiHop: Financial QA Benchmark for Reasoning with Knowledge Graph Evidence

Multi-hop reasoning over financial disclosures is often a retrieval problem before it becomes a reasoning or generation problem: relevant facts are dispersed across sections, filings, companies, and years, and LLMs often expend excessive tokens navigating noisy context. Without precise Knowledge Graph (KG)-guided selection of relevant context, even strong reasoning models either fail to answer or consume excessive tokens, whereas KG-linked evidence enables models to focus their reasoning on composing already retrieved facts. We present FinReflectKG - MultiHop, a benchmark built on FinReflectKG, a temporally indexed financial KG that links audited triples to source chunks from S&P 100 filings (2022-2024). Mining frequent 2-3 hop subgraph patterns across sectors (via GICS taxonomy), we generate financial analyst style questions with exact supporting evidence from the KG. A two-phase pipeline first creates QA pairs via pattern-specific prompts, followed by a multi-criteria quality control evaluation to ensure QA validity. We then evaluate three controlled retrieval scenarios: (S1) precise KG-linked paths; (S2) text-only page windows centered on relevant text spans; and (S3) relevant page windows with randomizations and distractors. Across both reasoning and non-reasoning models, KG-guided precise retrieval yields substantial gains on the FinReflectKG - MultiHop QA benchmark dataset, boosting correctness scores by approximately 24 percent while reducing token utilization by approximately 84.5 percent compared to the page window setting, which reflects the traditional vector retrieval paradigm. Spanning intra-document, inter-year, and cross-company scopes, our work underscores the pivotal role of knowledge graphs in efficiently connecting evidence for multi-hop financial QA. We also release a curated subset of the benchmark (555 QA Pairs) to catalyze further research.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 3

FinReflectKG: Agentic Construction and Evaluation of Financial Knowledge Graphs

The financial domain poses unique challenges for knowledge graph (KG) construction at scale due to the complexity and regulatory nature of financial documents. Despite the critical importance of structured financial knowledge, the field lacks large-scale, open-source datasets capturing rich semantic relationships from corporate disclosures. We introduce an open-source, large-scale financial knowledge graph dataset built from the latest annual SEC 10-K filings of all S and P 100 companies - a comprehensive resource designed to catalyze research in financial AI. We propose a robust and generalizable knowledge graph (KG) construction framework that integrates intelligent document parsing, table-aware chunking, and schema-guided iterative extraction with a reflection-driven feedback loop. Our system incorporates a comprehensive evaluation pipeline, combining rule-based checks, statistical validation, and LLM-as-a-Judge assessments to holistically measure extraction quality. We support three extraction modes - single-pass, multi-pass, and reflection-agent-based - allowing flexible trade-offs between efficiency, accuracy, and reliability based on user requirements. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that the reflection-agent-based mode consistently achieves the best balance, attaining a 64.8 percent compliance score against all rule-based policies (CheckRules) and outperforming baseline methods (single-pass and multi-pass) across key metrics such as precision, comprehensiveness, and relevance in LLM-guided evaluations.

  • 5 authors
·
Aug 25 1

California Earthquake Dataset for Machine Learning and Cloud Computing

The San Andreas Fault system, known for its frequent seismic activity, provides an extensive dataset for earthquake studies. The region's well-instrumented seismic networks have been crucial in advancing research on earthquake statistics, physics, and subsurface Earth structures. In recent years, earthquake data from California has become increasingly valuable for deep learning applications, such as Generalized Phase Detection (GPD) for phase detection and polarity determination, and PhaseNet for phase arrival-time picking. The continuous accumulation of data, particularly those manually labeled by human analysts, serves as an essential resource for advancing both regional and global deep learning models. To support the continued development of machine learning and data mining studies, we have compiled a unified California Earthquake Event Dataset (CEED) that integrates seismic records from the Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) and the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC). The dataset includes both automatically and manually determined parameters such as earthquake origin time, source location, P/S phase arrivals, first-motion polarities, and ground motion intensity measurements. The dataset is organized in an event-based format organized by year spanning from 2000 to 2024, facilitating cross-referencing with event catalogs and enabling continuous updates in future years. This comprehensive open-access dataset is designed to support diverse applications including developing deep learning models, creating enhanced catalog products, and research into earthquake processes, fault zone structures, and seismic risks.

  • 10 authors
·
Feb 17

SPeCtrum: A Grounded Framework for Multidimensional Identity Representation in LLM-Based Agent

Existing methods for simulating individual identities often oversimplify human complexity, which may lead to incomplete or flattened representations. To address this, we introduce SPeCtrum, a grounded framework for constructing authentic LLM agent personas by incorporating an individual's multidimensional self-concept. SPeCtrum integrates three core components: Social Identity (S), Personal Identity (P), and Personal Life Context (C), each contributing distinct yet interconnected aspects of identity. To evaluate SPeCtrum's effectiveness in identity representation, we conducted automated and human evaluations. Automated evaluations using popular drama characters showed that Personal Life Context (C)-derived from short essays on preferences and daily routines-modeled characters' identities more effectively than Social Identity (S) and Personal Identity (P) alone and performed comparably to the full SPC combination. In contrast, human evaluations involving real-world individuals found that the full SPC combination provided a more comprehensive self-concept representation than C alone. Our findings suggest that while C alone may suffice for basic identity simulation, integrating S, P, and C enhances the authenticity and accuracy of real-world identity representation. Overall, SPeCtrum offers a structured approach for simulating individuals in LLM agents, enabling more personalized human-AI interactions and improving the realism of simulation-based behavioral studies.

  • 11 authors
·
Feb 12

PhaseNet: A Deep-Neural-Network-Based Seismic Arrival Time Picking Method

As the number of seismic sensors grows, it is becoming increasingly difficult for analysts to pick seismic phases manually and comprehensively, yet such efforts are fundamental to earthquake monitoring. Despite years of improvements in automatic phase picking, it is difficult to match the performance of experienced analysts. A more subtle issue is that different seismic analysts may pick phases differently, which can introduce bias into earthquake locations. We present a deep-neural-network-based arrival-time picking method called "PhaseNet" that picks the arrival times of both P and S waves. Deep neural networks have recently made rapid progress in feature learning, and with sufficient training, have achieved super-human performance in many applications. PhaseNet uses three-component seismic waveforms as input and generates probability distributions of P arrivals, S arrivals, and noise as output. We engineer PhaseNet such that peaks in probability provide accurate arrival times for both P and S waves, and have the potential to increase the number of S-wave observations dramatically over what is currently available. This will enable both improved locations and improved shear wave velocity models. PhaseNet is trained on the prodigious available data set provided by analyst-labeled P and S arrival times from the Northern California Earthquake Data Center. The dataset we use contains more than seven million waveform samples extracted from over thirty years of earthquake recordings. We demonstrate that PhaseNet achieves much higher picking accuracy and recall rate than existing methods.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 8, 2018

SOAP: Improving and Stabilizing Shampoo using Adam

There is growing evidence of the effectiveness of Shampoo, a higher-order preconditioning method, over Adam in deep learning optimization tasks. However, Shampoo's drawbacks include additional hyperparameters and computational overhead when compared to Adam, which only updates running averages of first- and second-moment quantities. This work establishes a formal connection between Shampoo (implemented with the 1/2 power) and Adafactor -- a memory-efficient approximation of Adam -- showing that Shampoo is equivalent to running Adafactor in the eigenbasis of Shampoo's preconditioner. This insight leads to the design of a simpler and computationally efficient algorithm: ShampoO with Adam in the Preconditioner's eigenbasis (SOAP). With regards to improving Shampoo's computational efficiency, the most straightforward approach would be to simply compute Shampoo's eigendecomposition less frequently. Unfortunately, as our empirical results show, this leads to performance degradation that worsens with this frequency. SOAP mitigates this degradation by continually updating the running average of the second moment, just as Adam does, but in the current (slowly changing) coordinate basis. Furthermore, since SOAP is equivalent to running Adam in a rotated space, it introduces only one additional hyperparameter (the preconditioning frequency) compared to Adam. We empirically evaluate SOAP on language model pre-training with 360m and 660m sized models. In the large batch regime, SOAP reduces the number of iterations by over 40% and wall clock time by over 35% compared to AdamW, with approximately 20% improvements in both metrics compared to Shampoo. An implementation of SOAP is available at https://github.com/nikhilvyas/SOAP.

  • 7 authors
·
Sep 17, 2024

Seismic Arrival-time Picking on Distributed Acoustic Sensing Data using Semi-supervised Learning

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is an emerging technology for earthquake monitoring and subsurface imaging. The recorded seismic signals by DAS have several distinct characteristics, such as unknown coupling effects, strong anthropogenic noise, and ultra-dense spatial sampling. These aspects differ from conventional seismic data recorded by seismic networks, making it challenging to utilize DAS at present for seismic monitoring. New data analysis algorithms are needed to extract useful information from DAS data. Previous studies on conventional seismic data demonstrated that deep learning models could achieve performance close to human analysts in picking seismic phases. However, phase picking on DAS data is still a difficult problem due to the lack of manual labels. Further, the differences in mathematical structure between these two data formats, i.e., ultra-dense DAS arrays and sparse seismic networks, make model fine-tuning or transfer learning difficult to implement on DAS data. In this work, we design a new approach using semi-supervised learning to solve the phase-picking task on DAS arrays. We use a pre-trained PhaseNet model as a teacher network to generate noisy labels of P and S arrivals on DAS data and apply the Gaussian mixture model phase association (GaMMA) method to refine these noisy labels to build training datasets. We develop a new deep learning model, PhaseNet-DAS, to process the 2D spatial-temporal data of DAS arrays and train the model on DAS data. The new deep learning model achieves high picking accuracy and good earthquake detection performance. We then apply the model to process continuous data and build earthquake catalogs directly from DAS recording. Our approach using semi-supervised learning provides a way to build effective deep learning models for DAS, which have the potential to improve earthquake monitoring using large-scale fiber networks.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 17, 2023

Soft Prompt Generation for Domain Generalization

Large pre-trained vision language models (VLMs) have shown impressive zero-shot ability on downstream tasks with manually designed prompt, which are not optimal for specific domains. To further adapt VLMs to downstream tasks, soft prompt is proposed to replace manually designed prompt, which acts as a learning vector that undergoes fine-tuning based on specific domain data. Prior prompt learning methods primarily learn a fixed prompt and residuled prompt from training samples. However, the learned prompts lack diversity and ignore information about unseen domains, potentially compromising the transferability of the prompts. In this paper, we reframe the prompt learning framework from a generative perspective and propose a simple yet efficient method for the Domain Generalization (DG) task, namely Soft Prompt Generation (SPG). To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to introduce the generative model into prompt learning in VLMs and explore its potential for producing soft prompts by relying solely on the generative model, ensuring the diversity of prompts. Specifically, SPG consists of a two-stage training phase and an inference phase. During the training phase, we introduce soft prompt labels for each domain, aiming to incorporate the generative model domain knowledge. During the inference phase, the generator of the generative model is employed to obtain instance-specific soft prompts for the unseen target domain. Extensive experiments on five domain generalization benchmarks of three DG tasks demonstrate that our proposed SPG achieves state-of-the-art performance. The code will be available soon.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 30, 2024

Protein Multimer Structure Prediction via Prompt Learning

Understanding the 3D structures of protein multimers is crucial, as they play a vital role in regulating various cellular processes. It has been empirically confirmed that the multimer structure prediction~(MSP) can be well handled in a step-wise assembly fashion using provided dimer structures and predicted protein-protein interactions~(PPIs). However, due to the biological gap in the formation of dimers and larger multimers, directly applying PPI prediction techniques can often cause a poor generalization to the MSP task. To address this challenge, we aim to extend the PPI knowledge to multimers of different scales~(i.e., chain numbers). Specifically, we propose \textsc{PromptMSP}, a pre-training and Prompt tuning framework for Multimer Structure Prediction. First, we tailor the source and target tasks for effective PPI knowledge learning and efficient inference, respectively. We design PPI-inspired prompt learning to narrow the gaps of two task formats and generalize the PPI knowledge to multimers of different scales. We provide a meta-learning strategy to learn a reliable initialization of the prompt model, enabling our prompting framework to effectively adapt to limited data for large-scale multimers. Empirically, we achieve both significant accuracy (RMSD and TM-Score) and efficiency improvements compared to advanced MSP models. The code, data and checkpoints are released at https://github.com/zqgao22/PromptMSP.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 28, 2024